Climate Fiction by Evidence — An Evidence-Type Audit Catalog

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Audit failure

Click any evidence type to audit its claim entitlement.

1

What is directly measured?

Direct instrument reading is one of the strongest evidence kinds. The audit asks which terms in any composite have direct measurement, and how much of the claim is actually carried by them rather than by adjustments and inferences layered on top.
2

What is adjusted, inferred, or modelled?

Most headline numbers are composites. The audit names which terms are adjusted (homogenisation, calibration baselines), which are inferred (statistical attribution, gap-filling), and which are modelled (reanalysis, projection). Each kind carries different evidentiary weight.
3

What calibration and uncertainty chain exists?

A measurement only counts if its calibration chain is traceable, documented, and independently verified. The audit asks for the chain — and asks whether the uncertainty travelling with the number is itself appropriately quantified.
4

What assumptions or omissions matter?

Evidence carries assumptions: about boundary conditions, baseline periods, model structure, sample representativeness. The audit names the high-leverage ones — and asks what was quietly omitted from the analysis.
5

What claim is actually justified?

The framework's signature question. Evidence licenses a reliance class — concern, planning, decision-grade. The audit asks whether the claim being made stays inside the class the evidence has actually earned.